Spatial Error Model dan Spatial Lag Model pada Statistik Perhotelan di Pulau Lombok

  • Lalu Masyhudi Sekolah Tinggi Pariwisata Mataram, Mataram, Indonesia
  • Erri Supriyadi Sekolah Tinggi Pariwisata Mataram, Mataram, Indonesia
  • Sri Wahyuningsih Sekolah Tinggi Pariwisata Mataram, Mataram, Indonesia
  • Yuli Sawitri Sekolah Tinggi Pariwisata Mataram, Mataram, Indonesia
  • Lalu Muhamad Rafly Sekolah Tinggi Pariwisata Mataram, Mataram, Indonesia

Keywords

Spatial Lag Model, Spatial Error Model, Accommodation, OpenStreetMap, Lombok Island

Abstract

Accommodation businesses on Lombok Island are concentrated in a few tourism areas, yet official statistics are not available at the sub-district level and earlier studies rarely modelled spatial dependence. This study identifies spatial autocorrelation in accommodation supply, analyses its determinants, and compares the Spatial Error Model (SEM) and the Spatial Lag Model (SAR) with Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). Accommodation, tourist attractions and main roads for 53 sub-districts were extracted from OpenStreetMap (OSM) and combined with population and area data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). OSM accommodation counts closely matched BPS hotel counts in Mataram City (r = 0.976). Using a queen contiguity weight matrix, the analysis applied Moran’s I, LISA, OLS, Lagrange Multiplier diagnostics and maximum likelihood estimation. Accommodation showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I = 0.270; p < 0.001), with a High-High cluster in Pemenang, Batu Layar and Ampenan and Low-Low clusters in central-southern Lombok. LM-Lag tests were significant, whereas LM-Error tests were not. The SEM did not improve on OLS (λ = 0.243; p = 0.198). The SAR produced a significant spatial lag coefficient (ρ = 0.310; p = 0.021), the lowest AIC (162.08 versus 164.20) and spatially random residuals. Tourist attractions (direct impact 1.026) and main road density (direct impact 0.944) were the significant determinants. Spatial dependence in Lombok’s accommodation supply therefore takes the form of spillovers between neighbouring sub-districts, which supports corridor-based tourism planning

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2026-11-05